OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

New Orleans Saints – 13 - 23 – Minnesota Vikings

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	64.8%	58%	+6.7%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	35.2%	64.8%

Inputs the models saw

	New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.36
form diff	-0.50
rest diff	-0.17
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.56
opponent strength diff	-0.08
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T17:00:00+00:00

New Orleans Saints: last 5

06 Oct	H	Atlanta Falcons	24 - 45	L
27 Sep	H	Las Vegas Raiders	27 - 35	L
20 Sep	A	Baltimore Ravens	24 - 17	W
13 Sep	A	Detroit Lions	30 - 31	L
04 Jan	A	Atlanta Falcons	17 - 19	L

Minnesota Vikings: last 5

04 Oct	H	Miami Dolphins	15 - 10	W
27 Sep	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23 - 16	W
20 Sep	A	Chicago Bears	9 - 3	W
13 Sep	H	Green Bay Packers	39 - 22	W
04 Jan	H	Green Bay Packers	16 - 3	W

Head to head

12 Nov 2023	Minnesota Vikings	27 - 19	New Orleans Saints
02 Oct 2022	New Orleans Saints	25 - 28	Minnesota Vikings
25 Dec 2020	New Orleans Saints	52 - 33	Minnesota Vikings
05 Jan 2020	New Orleans Saints	20 - 26	Minnesota Vikings
29 Oct 2018	Minnesota Vikings	20 - 30	New Orleans Saints
14 Jan 2018	Minnesota Vikings	29 - 24	New Orleans Saints
11 Sep 2017	Minnesota Vikings	29 - 19	New Orleans Saints
21 Sep 2014	New Orleans Saints	20 - 9	Minnesota Vikings
18 Dec 2011	Minnesota Vikings	20 - 42	New Orleans Saints
10 Sep 2010	New Orleans Saints	14 - 9	Minnesota Vikings

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.17	46.1%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.76	56.8%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC