| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.6% | 58% | -0.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| logistic | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Luca Nardi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1601 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1601 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Mmoh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | August Holmgren | 1 - 2 | Luca Nardi |
| 04 Nov 2024 | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | Luca Nardi |
| 13 Nov 2023 | August Holmgren | 1 - 2 | Luca Nardi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |