| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.7% | 69% | -10.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.5% | 32.4% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Hugo Grenier | Georgii Kravchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1479 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1479 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Bruno Pujol Navarro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Carl Emil Overbeck | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Sergi Fita Juan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Goncalo Marques | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Radu Albot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 05 Oct 06:15 |