| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 76.6% | 86% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| logistic | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1758 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1758 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Federico Cina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alexander Shevchenko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | Mattia Bellucci |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | Elias Ymer |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | Mattia Bellucci |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Elias Ymer | 2 - 1 | Mattia Bellucci |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.16 | 86.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.75 | 21.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |