OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-16

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Friday 16 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · finished

Daniil Medvedev 2.40 2 - 1 1.80 Tommy Paul

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	66.9%	68%	-0.7%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	55.7%	44.3%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	73.4%	26.5%
logistic	60.6%	39.4%

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Tommy Paul
Elo (pre-match)	2073	1995
Surface Elo	2073	1995
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	-0.90
Season points per game	2.73	2.25
Season goals for / game	1.82	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.36	0.50
Rest days	2	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	4 W	1 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

16 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W

Tommy Paul: last 5

16 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	L
14 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 0	W
14 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	2 - 0	W

Head to head

16 Oct 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
03 Mar 2025	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
06 May 2024	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	Tommy Paul
04 Mar 2024	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
27 Sep 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
31 May 2021	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 1	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.75	36.4%	15 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.48	67.6%	15 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:03 UTC