OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League One · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Peterboro 0.80 2 - 2 0.80 Burton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.8%56%-8.1%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.4%82%-6.8%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 61.6%74%-12.2%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.2%44%+10.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.6%24.6%27.8%
xgboost39.6%26.6%33.8%
logistic41.1%29.7%29.2%
Inputs the models saw
PeterboroBurton
Elo (pre-match)14071466
Surface Elo14071466
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.800.80
Form trend-0.500.10
Season points per game0.891.20
Season goals for / game0.781.40
Season goals against / game1.561.60
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W2 W · 4 D
Peterboro: last 5
10 OctALeicester3 - 1W
26 SepAStockport0 - 1L
19 SepHDoncaster0 - 2L
12 SepAMilton Keynes Dons1 - 1D
05 SepHSheffield Weds1 - 2L
Burton: last 5
10 OctADoncaster0 - 1L
10 OctADoncaster0 - 1L
06 OctAGrimsby0 - 0D
03 OctHHuddersfield1 - 3L
03 OctHHuddersfield1 - 3L
Head to head
19 Apr 2026Peterboro1 - 1Burton
18 Oct 2025Burton0 - 1Peterboro
01 Jan 2025Burton2 - 2Peterboro
04 Dec 2024Peterboro0 - 1Burton
09 Mar 2024Burton1 - 3Peterboro
25 Nov 2023Peterboro4 - 0Burton
14 Mar 2023Burton2 - 5Peterboro
08 Oct 2022Peterboro1 - 1Burton
06 Mar 2021Burton2 - 1Peterboro
27 Oct 2020Peterboro2 - 2Burton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.1024.4%17 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%17 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.7158.5%17 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%17 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3542.5%17 Oct 12:30
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC