| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 63% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 67.3% | 32.6% |
| logistic | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Genaro Alberto Olivieri | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1595 | 1543 |
| Surface Elo | 1595 | 1543 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 15 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Niels Visker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |