| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.3% | 91% | -28.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.3% | 99% | -12.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.6% | 98% | -17.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 82% | -25.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 72.7% | 16.9% | 10.4% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 20.4% | 13.4% |
| logistic | 76.5% | 16.2% | 7.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1860 | 1581 |
| Surface Elo | 1860 | 1581 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Marseille | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Brest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Monaco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Lille | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 28.13 | 3.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 13.16 | 7.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.10 | 90.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.22 | 82.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.50 | 22.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |