| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.8% | 55% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.2% | 40.7% |
| logistic | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Manuel Mazza | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1428 | 1513 |
| Surface Elo | 1428 | 1513 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.70 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Riccardo Di Vita | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Ivan Ivanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Lorenzo Berto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Jul | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Jul | H | Viktor Durasovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Romeo Spinolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Simone Massucco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Alexander Weis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Stefano D'Agostino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Giorgio Tabacco | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 21 Oct 06:15 |