| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.3% | 76% | -14.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 86.6% | 95% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.6% | 93% | -12.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 54% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 11.4% | 18.6% | 70.0% |
| xgboost | 11.2% | 24.8% | 63.9% |
| logistic | 7.6% | 17.7% | 74.8% |
| Maritimo | Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1433 | 1877 |
| Surface Elo | 1433 | 1877 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.14 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 2.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.71 | 0.43 |
| Rest days | 21 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 7 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Gil Vicente | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Gil Vicente | 1 - 1 | D |
| 14 Sep | A | Moreirense | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Benfica | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Arouca | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Leixoes SC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | RC Deportivo de A Coruna | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Benfica | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Benfica | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Casa Pia | 4 - 1 | W |
| 01 Feb 2023 | Maritimo | 0 - 2 | Porto |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Porto | 5 - 1 | Maritimo |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Porto | 2 - 1 | Maritimo |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Maritimo | 1 - 1 | Porto |
| 22 Feb 2021 | Maritimo | 1 - 2 | Porto |
| 03 Oct 2020 | Porto | 2 - 3 | Maritimo |
| 10 Jun 2020 | Porto | 1 - 0 | Maritimo |
| 30 Oct 2019 | Maritimo | 1 - 1 | Porto |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Porto | 3 - 0 | Maritimo |
| 03 Nov 2018 | Maritimo | 0 - 2 | Porto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.30 | 76.9% | 10 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 10 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 9.00 | 11.1% | 10 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.03 | 49.3% | 10 Oct 18:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.34 | 74.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.41 | 18.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 9.86 | 10.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |