| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.0% | 67% | -10.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 62.5% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Jaime Faria | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1823 | 1761 |
| Surface Elo | 1823 | 1761 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Hugo Gaston | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Jenson Brooksby | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Luca Van Assche | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | Jaime Faria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 25 Sep 06:15 |