| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.3% | 73% | -13.7% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 40.2% | 59.7% |
| logistic | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Tomas Machac | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1823 | 2037 |
| Surface Elo | 1823 | 2037 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W 路 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Fabian Marozsan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Apr 2025 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.40 | 71.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| 888sport | h2h | Tomas Machac | 2.90 | 34.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.39 | 71.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.05 | 32.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.41 | 70.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Alex de Minaur | 1.42 | 70.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Tomas Machac | 3.45 | 29.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.42 | 70.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Tomas Machac | 2.93 | 34.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.35 | 74.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.37 | 73.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.25 | 30.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Alex de Minaur | 1.45 | 69.0% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Tomas Machac | 3.65 | 27.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.41 | 70.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.06 | 32.7% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.30 | 76.9% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.05 | 32.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.31 | 76.3% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 2.85 | 35.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.35 | 74.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.35 | 74.1% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.20 | 31.2% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.40 | 71.4% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Tomas Machac | 2.90 | 34.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.38 | 72.5% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.25 | 30.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Alex de Minaur | 1.34 | 74.6% | 26 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Tomas Machac | 3.05 | 32.8% | 26 Oct 06:00 |