| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.0% | 78% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| logistic | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Jerome Kym | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1693 | 1516 |
| Surface Elo | 1693 | 1516 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 27 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Toby Samuel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Tom Gentzsch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Mert Alkaya | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Jul | A | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Jul | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Jerome Kym | 2 - 1 | Tiago Torres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.25 | 23.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.20 | 83.3% | 28 Sep 06:15 |