| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.7% | 33% | +29.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.1% | 64% | +23.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 83.4% | 46% | +37.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 51% | +1.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 78.9% | 14.5% | 6.7% |
| xgboost | 43.9% | 35.8% | 20.3% |
| logistic | 68.5% | 22.3% | 9.3% |
| Atalanta | Reggiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1673 | 1366 |
| Surface Elo | 1673 | 1366 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.86 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 4 | 182 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | H | FC Kairat Almaty | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Nov | H | Parma | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Spezia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Lecco | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | US Sambenedettese | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | US Grosseto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Modena | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Pro Vercelli | 1 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |