| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.7% | 41% | +4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 78% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 58% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 52% | +3.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.3% | 29.7% | 23.0% |
| xgboost | 41.1% | 26.1% | 32.8% |
| logistic | 38.4% | 29.4% | 32.2% |
| Montpellier | Red Star | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1520 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1520 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.22 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.56 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 7 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Rodez | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Rodez Aveyron Football | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Reims | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | St Etienne | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Saint-Etienne | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Clermont | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Clermont | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Guingamp | 3 - 1 | W |
| 09 May 2026 | Red Star | 1 - 1 | Montpellier |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Montpellier | 1 - 1 | Red Star |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 26 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 26 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 26 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 26 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 26 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.89 | 52.9% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.88 | 53.2% | 26 Oct 06:15 |