| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 57% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| logistic | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Sander Jong | Lui Maxted | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1558 | 1532 |
| Surface Elo | 1558 | 1532 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Kenta Miyoshi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Darwin Blanch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | J.J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Lui Maxted | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sander Jong | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Cosme Rolland De Ravel | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Andrew Fenty | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Roger Pascual Ferra | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Luca Potenza | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Lui Maxted | 0 - 2 | Sander Jong |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |