OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

⚽ Serie B · Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished

Empoli 1.20 2 - 4 2.60 Palermo

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	53.5%	52%	+1.4%	✓ hit
DC	Draw or away	77.5%	80%	-2.8%	✓ hit
DNB	Away (DNB)	68.9%	71%	-1.7%	✓ hit
O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	50.1%	50%	-0.0%	✗ miss
BTTS	BTTS yes	52.5%	no line		✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Draw	Away
poisson	28.3%	28.9%	42.8%
xgboost	20.3%	19.1%	60.6%
logistic	21.8%	26.9%	51.3%

Inputs the models saw

Empoli: last 5

Palermo: last 5

Head to head

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Bet365	1X2	away	1.86	53.8%	10 Oct 14:00
Bet365	1X2	draw	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 14:00
Bet365	1X2	home	3.90	25.6%	10 Oct 14:00
Bet365	O/U 2.5	over	1.80	55.6%	10 Oct 14:00
Bet365	O/U 2.5	under	2.00	50.0%	10 Oct 14:00
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.98	50.5%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	draw	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.60	27.8%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	O/U 2.5	over	1.80	55.6%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	O/U 2.5	under	1.99	50.2%	10 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC