| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.9% | 81% | -18.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.2% | 56.7% |
| logistic | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| Daniel Merida | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1850 | 2126 |
| Surface Elo | 1850 | 2126 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.65 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.47 |
| Rest days | 20 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Marton Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Jul 2026 | Daniel Merida | 1 - 3 | Daniil Medvedev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.26 | 79.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.10 | 24.4% | 27 Oct 06:15 |