| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.8% | 77% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.1% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Felipe Meligeni Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1749 | 1601 |
| Surface Elo | 1749 | 1601 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Nick Hardt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |