| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.3% | 74% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| logistic | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| David Jorda Sanchis | Inaki Montes De La Torre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1602 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1602 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Luca Potenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Henrique Rocha | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | Inaki Montes De La Torre |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.35 | 74.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.05 | 32.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |