| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.4% | 70% | -11.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| logistic | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Moez Echargui | Raul Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1563 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1563 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 4 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | Raul Brancaccio |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | Raul Brancaccio |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |