| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.7% | 41% | +13.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.6% | 66% | +15.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.0% | 54% | +20.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 68% | -9.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.8% | 20.1% | 63.1% |
| xgboost | 21.5% | 29.7% | 48.8% |
| logistic | 18.4% | 26.4% | 55.2% |
| Boston Utd | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1412 | 1672 |
| Surface Elo | 1412 | 1672 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Southend | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Southend | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Yeovil | 0 - 6 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Yeovil | 0 - 6 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Halifax | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.46 | 68.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |