OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-08
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 08 November 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Twente 2.00 2 - 2 2.20 Ajax
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.2%45%+2.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 77.0%78%-1.4%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 60.3%60%+0.5%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.6%68%-8.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 60.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson41.2%25.9%32.9%
xgboost47.8%19.9%32.2%
logistic48.5%23.9%27.6%
Inputs the models saw
TwenteAjax
Elo (pre-match)16951704
Surface Elo16951704
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.002.20
Form trend-0.20-0.60
Season points per game2.092.18
Season goals for / game2.552.73
Season goals against / game0.911.18
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Twente: last 5
05 NovHPafos FC3 - 1W
01 NovAExcelsior9 - 0W
01 NovAExcelsior9 - 0W
25 OctAAZ Alkmaar2 - 0W
25 OctAAZ Alkmaar2 - 0W
Ajax: last 5
05 NovAFC Midtjylland6 - 1W
31 OctHAZ Alkmaar1 - 0W
31 OctHAZ Alkmaar1 - 0W
25 OctASparta Rotterdam2 - 1W
25 OctASparta Rotterdam2 - 1W
Head to head
04 Apr 2026Ajax1 - 2Twente
26 Oct 2025Twente2 - 3Ajax
18 May 2025Ajax2 - 0Twente
10 Nov 2024Twente2 - 2Ajax
14 Apr 2024Ajax2 - 1Twente
17 Sep 2023Twente3 - 1Ajax
28 May 2023Twente3 - 1Ajax
14 Jan 2023Ajax0 - 0Twente
13 Feb 2022Ajax5 - 0Twente
22 Aug 2021Twente1 - 1Ajax
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.0025.0%08 Nov 13:30
Bet3651X2draw4.2023.8%08 Nov 13:30
Bet3651X2home1.7557.1%08 Nov 13:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3673.5%08 Nov 13:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.1032.3%08 Nov 13:30
SportyBet1X2away3.3629.8%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9925.1%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0848.1%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4768.0%08 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7536.4%08 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC