| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.1% | 47% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 76% | +0.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.6% | 63% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 59% | +7.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.1% | 26.5% | 32.5% |
| xgboost | 44.2% | 26.7% | 29.1% |
| logistic | 46.0% | 26.9% | 27.1% |
| Bournemouth | Ac Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1750 | 1776 |
| Surface Elo | 1750 | 1776 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Sturm Graz | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Plymouth | 6 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1 - 5 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Atalanta | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Atalanta | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Chievo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Salzburg | 4 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Sassuolo | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.82 | 26.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.08 | 48.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.71 | 58.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |