| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.4% | 84% | -11.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| logistic | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Gustavo Heide | Pedro Boscardin Dias | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1780 | 1623 |
| Surface Elo | 1780 | 1623 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Pedro Boscardin Dias |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Pedro Boscardin Dias |
| 30 Mar 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Pedro Boscardin Dias |
| 09 May 2022 | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | Pedro Boscardin Dias |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.35 | 23.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |