| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.4% | 56% | +6.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.7% | 52.2% |
| logistic | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Jenson Brooksby | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1731 | 1622 |
| Surface Elo | 1731 | 1622 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Jaime Faria | 2 - 3 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Jenson Brooksby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 21 Mar 2022 | Jenson Brooksby | 2 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 09 Aug 2021 | Jenson Brooksby | 1 - 2 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Jenson Brooksby | 1 - 3 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |