| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.0% | 64% | -7.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 47.8% | 52.1% |
| logistic | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Arthur Gea | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1878 | 1955 |
| Surface Elo | 1878 | 1955 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Arthur Gea | 2 - 0 | Jakub Mensik |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.56 | 64.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |