| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.9% | 45% | +3.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.8% | 75% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.2% | 64% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 45% | +10.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.6% | 27.4% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 49.2% | 25.4% | 25.3% |
| logistic | 42.8% | 28.1% | 29.0% |
| Celta | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1627 | 1603 |
| Surface Elo | 1627 | 1603 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Juventus | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Elche | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Elche | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Santander | 5 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 0 - 0 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Valencia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Santander | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Celta | 3 - 4 | Alaves |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Alaves | 0 - 1 | Celta |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Alaves | 1 - 1 | Celta |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Celta | 2 - 1 | Alaves |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Alaves | 3 - 0 | Celta |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Celta | 1 - 1 | Alaves |
| 07 May 2022 | Celta | 4 - 0 | Alaves |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Alaves | 1 - 2 | Celta |
| 04 Apr 2021 | Alaves | 1 - 3 | Celta |
| 20 Dec 2020 | Celta | 2 - 0 | Alaves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.59 | 27.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.37 | 29.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |