| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.3% | 90% | -22.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| logistic | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Hernan Casanova | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1515 | 1394 |
| Surface Elo | 1515 | 1394 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Justin Roberts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Jose Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Apr 2021 | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | Wilson Leite |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.90 | 17.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 04 Oct 06:15 |