| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.4% | 82% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| logistic | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Liam Draxl | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1686 | 1520 |
| Surface Elo | 1686 | 1520 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Tomasz Berkieta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | A | Young, Gavin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Quinn Vandecasteele | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Raphael Perot | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 29 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 29 Oct 06:15 |