| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 67% | -12.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| logistic | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Franco Agamenone | John Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1489 | 1413 |
| Surface Elo | 1489 | 1413 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Almazan Valiente, Izan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Izan Almazan Valiente | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Sergi Fita Juan | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 28 Sep 06:15 |