| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.5% | 61% | -8.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.4% | 53.5% |
| logistic | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| August Holmgren | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 13 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Luca Nardi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Coleman Wong | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Ognjen Milic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Coleman Wong | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | James Mccabe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Ognjen Milic | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Oct 06:15 |