OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-31
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC · scheduled
Manchester City 2.40 15:00 2.40 Brighton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.9%60%-6.0%
DCHome or draw 79.6%82%-2.1%
DNBHome (DNB) 71.3%76%-4.7%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.2%71%-14.5%
BTTSBTTS yes 56.9%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson60.2%21.2%18.6%
xgboost45.8%28.0%26.3%
logistic55.1%24.9%20.0%
Inputs the models saw
Manchester CityBrighton
Elo (pre-match)19241775
Surface Elo19241775
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.402.40
Form trend0.600.60
Season points per game2.002.00
Season goals for / game2.332.33
Season goals against / game1.330.67
Rest days76
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Manchester City: last 5
28 OctHBrighton2 - 2D
27 OctAPort Vale0 - 5L
24 OctAAston Villa1 - 2L
24 OctAAston Villa1 - 2L
20 OctHAEK5 - 1W
Brighton: last 5
28 OctAManchester City2 - 2D
25 OctALiverpool0 - 2L
25 OctALiverpool0 - 2L
22 OctAFK Jablonec0 - 0D
18 OctHCrystal Palace5 - 0W
Head to head
28 Oct 2026Manchester City2 - 2Brighton
07 Jan 2026Manchester City1 - 1Brighton
31 Aug 2025Brighton2 - 1Manchester City
15 Mar 2025Manchester City2 - 2Brighton
09 Nov 2024Brighton2 - 1Manchester City
25 Apr 2024Brighton0 - 4Manchester City
21 Oct 2023Manchester City2 - 1Brighton
24 May 2023Brighton1 - 1Manchester City
22 Oct 2022Manchester City3 - 1Brighton
20 Apr 2022Manchester City3 - 0Brighton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.8720.5%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.7221.2%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6660.2%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4170.9%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.0033.3%30 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 14:01 UTC