OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇮🇹 Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Roma 2.20 2 - 0 0.80 Genoa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 67.0%66%+1.4%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 90.7%88%+2.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 87.8%84%+3.7%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.6%56%+2.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 52.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson63.8%22.2%14.0%
xgboost87.7%8.1%4.3%
logistic79.8%14.6%5.6%
Inputs the models saw
RomaGenoa
Elo (pre-match)18391582
Surface Elo18391582
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.200.80
Form trend0.60-0.60
Season points per game2.330.67
Season goals for / game2.330.83
Season goals against / game0.501.83
Rest days67
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W2 W · 2 D
Roma: last 5
14 OctHReal Madrid3 - 4L
11 OctAComo0 - 0D
11 OctAComo0 - 0D
19 SepHInter2 - 2D
14 SepATorino2 - 0W
Genoa: last 5
10 OctHFiorentina2 - 1W
10 OctHFiorentina2 - 1W
02 OctARapid Bucuresti 19230 - 2L
20 SepAParma1 - 2L
12 SepHFrosinone1 - 1D
Head to head
08 Mar 2026Genoa2 - 1Roma
29 Dec 2025Roma3 - 1Genoa
17 Jan 2025Roma3 - 1Genoa
15 Sep 2024Genoa1 - 1Roma
19 May 2024Roma1 - 0Genoa
28 Sep 2023Genoa4 - 1Roma
05 Feb 2022Roma0 - 0Genoa
21 Nov 2021Genoa0 - 2Roma
07 Mar 2021Roma1 - 0Genoa
08 Nov 2020Genoa1 - 3Roma
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.7517.4%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.8026.3%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2home1.6261.7%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9850.5%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8853.2%17 Oct 19:45
SportyBet1X2away6.1316.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2623.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6162.1%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8653.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9950.2%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 20:31 UTC