OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 20:05 UTC · finished

Minnesota Vikings – 15 - 10 – Miami Dolphins

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	79.4%	86%	-6.8%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	79.4%	20.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Minnesota Vikings	Miami Dolphins
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.30
form diff	0.75
rest diff	-0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	1.66
opponent strength diff	0.01
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T20:05:00+00:00

Minnesota Vikings: last 5

27 Sep	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23 - 16	W
20 Sep	A	Chicago Bears	9 - 3	W
13 Sep	H	Green Bay Packers	39 - 22	W
04 Jan	H	Green Bay Packers	16 - 3	W
25 Dec	H	Detroit Lions	23 - 10	W

Miami Dolphins: last 5

27 Sep	H	Kansas City Chiefs	10 - 24	L
20 Sep	A	San Francisco 49ers	13 - 35	L
13 Sep	A	Las Vegas Raiders	13 - 27	L
04 Jan	A	New England Patriots	10 - 38	L
28 Dec	H	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20 - 17	W

Head to head

16 Oct 2022	Miami Dolphins	16 - 24	Minnesota Vikings
16 Dec 2018	Minnesota Vikings	41 - 17	Miami Dolphins
21 Dec 2014	Miami Dolphins	37 - 35	Minnesota Vikings
19 Sep 2010	Minnesota Vikings	10 - 14	Miami Dolphins
19 Nov 2006	Miami Dolphins	24 - 20	Minnesota Vikings
21 Dec 2002	Minnesota Vikings	20 - 17	Miami Dolphins
10 Sep 2000	Minnesota Vikings	13 - 7	Miami Dolphins

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.19	84.0%	04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	5.31	18.8%	04 Oct 15:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC