OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Primeira Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished
Benfica 2.40 2 - 0 1.00 Guimaraes
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 67.7%83%-15.0%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 91.1%98%-6.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 88.3%97%-8.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.4%68%-10.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson75.6%15.2%9.2%
xgboost80.0%12.9%7.0%
logistic78.9%14.6%6.5%
Inputs the models saw
BenficaGuimaraes
Elo (pre-match)18531482
Surface Elo18531482
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.00
Form trend0.600.40
Season points per game2.290.71
Season goals for / game3.140.71
Season goals against / game1.001.14
Rest days2021
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W0 W · 2 D
Benfica: last 5
20 SepAPorto1 - 3L
20 SepAPorto1 - 3L
13 SepHGil Vicente3 - 1W
09 SepAMoreirense4 - 0W
05 SepAMaritimo3 - 0W
Guimaraes: last 5
11 OctHPacos Ferreira0 - 1L
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
12 SepAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
06 SepHCasa Pia0 - 0D
Head to head
21 Mar 2026Benfica3 - 0Guimaraes
01 Nov 2025Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
19 Apr 2025Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
07 Dec 2024Benfica1 - 0Guimaraes
11 Feb 2024Guimaraes2 - 2Benfica
02 Sep 2023Benfica4 - 0Guimaraes
18 Mar 2023Benfica5 - 1Guimaraes
01 Oct 2022Guimaraes0 - 0Benfica
27 Feb 2022Benfica3 - 0Guimaraes
25 Sep 2021Guimaraes1 - 3Benfica
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away12.008.3%11 Oct 18:00
Bet3651X2draw6.0016.7%11 Oct 18:00
Bet3651X2home1.1984.0%11 Oct 18:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4071.4%11 Oct 18:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.8834.7%11 Oct 18:00
SportyBet1X2away13.087.6%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw7.1813.9%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.2381.3%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4867.6%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7536.4%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC