OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-10

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.80 08:30 2.40 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	64.3%	68%	-3.8%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	63.7%	36.3%
logistic	69.4%	30.6%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Elo (pre-match)	1986	1802
Surface Elo	1986	1802
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	2.40
Form trend	0.90	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	10	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

10 Oct	A	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	A	Alejandro Tabilo	0 - 2	L
30 Sep	A	Alejandro Tabilo	0 - 2	L
06 Sep	A	Carlos Alcaraz	0 - 3	L
04 Sep	A	Alexander Bublik	3 - 2	W

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: last 5

10 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	0 - 2	L
08 Oct	H	Valentin Royer	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	H	Valentin Royer	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	A	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	0 - 2	L

Head to head

10 Oct 2026	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	0 - 2	Tommy Paul
18 Aug 2026	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	1 - 2	Tommy Paul
02 Apr 2026	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	1 - 2	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.46	68.5%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.60	38.5%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.50	66.7%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.70	37.0%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.48	67.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.96	33.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.51	66.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.98	33.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.52	65.8%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.72	36.8%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.49	67.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.75	36.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.46	68.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.78	36.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.70	37.0%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.47	68.0%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.75	36.4%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.43	69.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.96	33.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.51	66.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.98	33.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.52	65.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.75	36.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.46	68.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.49	67.1%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.63	38.0%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.47	68.0%	10 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.70	37.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.65	37.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.75	36.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.43	69.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.75	36.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.43	69.9%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.60	38.5%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.50	66.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.48	67.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	2.70	37.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.45	69.0%	10 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC