| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.8% | 62% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| logistic | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Alexander Weis | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1486 | 1463 |
| Surface Elo | 1486 | 1463 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Gabriele Crivellaro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Fausto Tabacco | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Nikita Mashtakov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Stefano D'Agostino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Giorgio Tabacco | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Michiel De Krom | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |