| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.5% | 59% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| logistic | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Anton Matusevich | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1556 | 1635 |
| Surface Elo | 1556 | 1635 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Robin Bertrand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Tiago Cacao | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Mickael Kaouk | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Anton Matusevich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | Anton Matusevich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.70 | 58.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |