| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.7% | 60% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| logistic | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Federico Arnaboldi | Kalin Ivanovski | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1490 | 1458 |
| Surface Elo | 1490 | 1458 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Claus Piening | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrik Homola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Ryo Tabata | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |