| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.6% | 55% | +8.0% | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| logistic | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Jamie Mackenzie | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1418 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1418 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 65 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 10 Aug | H | Jan Kumstat | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Elmer Moller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | H | Jan Choinski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | H | Max Dahlin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Jurij Rodionov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Akira Santillan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Pavel Kotov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.83 | 54.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |