| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.2% | 63% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 31.3% | 68.6% |
| logistic | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Mariano Navone | Tallon Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1827 | 1742 |
| Surface Elo | 1827 | 1742 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Max Schoenhaus | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Max Schoenhaus | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Mariano Navone | 0 - 2 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 21 Oct 06:15 |