| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.4% | 70% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| logistic | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Moez Echargui | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1561 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1561 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 13 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Alec Deckers | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 20 Sep 06:16 |