| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | 64% | -5.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.7% | 37.2% |
| logistic | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Buvaysar Gadamauri | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1541 | 1527 |
| Surface Elo | 1541 | 1527 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Ivan Gakhov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 0 - 2 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 08 Oct 06:15 |