OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-23

🎾 WTA Ningbo, China Women Singles · Friday 23 October 2026, 06:10 UTC · finished

Leylah Fernandez 2.40 2 - 1 1.20 Ekaterina Alexandrova

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	51.9%	47%	+5.4%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	49.3%	50.7%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	50.3%	49.6%
logistic	51.4%	48.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Leylah Fernandez	Ekaterina Alexandrova
Elo (pre-match)	1761	1748
Surface Elo	1761	1748
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.20
Form trend	0.00	-0.90
Season points per game	2.45	2.14
Season goals for / game	1.82	1.43
Season goals against / game	0.73	0.71
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	3 W · 0 D

Leylah Fernandez: last 5

21 Oct	H	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	A	Elise Mertens	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	A	Elena Rybakina	0 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Marie Bouzkova	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	A	Ekaterina Alexandrova	2 - 1	W

Ekaterina Alexandrova: last 5

21 Oct	H	Marta Kostyuk	1 - 0	W
20 Oct	A	Hanyu Guo	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Leylah Fernandez	1 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Marta Kostyuk	1 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Hanyu Guo	2 - 0	W

Head to head

19 Oct 2026	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
12 Oct 2026	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
12 Oct 2026	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1 - 2	Leylah Fernandez
06 Jan 2025	Ekaterina Alexandrova	2 - 1	Leylah Fernandez
28 Aug 2023	Ekaterina Alexandrova	2 - 1	Leylah Fernandez
15 Aug 2022	Ekaterina Alexandrova	2 - 0	Leylah Fernandez
03 Jan 2022	Ekaterina Alexandrova	0 - 2	Leylah Fernandez

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.73	57.8%	22 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.15	46.5%	22 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:04 UTC