| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.0% | 68% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| logistic | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1892 | 2004 |
| Surface Elo | 1892 | 2004 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | Alex Michelsen |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Arthur Fils |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 28 Oct 06:15 |