| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.9% | 48% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.1% | 77% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.9% | 64% | -7.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 62% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.4% | 26.6% | 36.0% |
| xgboost | 34.6% | 22.6% | 42.8% |
| logistic | 27.6% | 27.9% | 44.5% |
| Dresden | Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1396 | 1564 |
| Surface Elo | 1396 | 1564 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 3 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Magdeburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Magdeburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Osnabruck | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | FC Koln | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | FC Koln | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Mainz | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Mainz | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Freiburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Schalke 04 | 2 - 2 | Dresden |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Dresden | 0 - 1 | Schalke 04 |
| 01 Apr 2022 | Dresden | 1 - 2 | Schalke 04 |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Schalke 04 | 3 - 0 | Dresden |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.14 | 46.7% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.41 | 29.3% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |