| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.2% | 45% | +15.8% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.0% | 47.9% |
| logistic | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Michele Mecarelli | Andrej Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1568 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1568 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 08 Nov | A | Gianmarco Ferrari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Stepan Baum | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Simone Massucco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Daniele Rapagnetta | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Vlad Cristian Breazu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Eero Vasa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Tiago Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 11 Nov 06:15 |