| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.9% | 45% | +2.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 82% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.2% | 60% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 64% | -0.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.3% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
| xgboost | 36.4% | 28.6% | 35.0% |
| logistic | 39.8% | 27.1% | 33.1% |
| Spartans | Stranraer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1432 | 1437 |
| Surface Elo | 1432 | 1437 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Bonnyrigg Rose | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Edinburgh City | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Edinburgh City | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Kelty Hearts | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Kelty Hearts | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Annan Athletic | 6 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Annan Athletic | 6 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Edinburgh City | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Edinburgh City | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | East Kilbride | 4 - 3 | W |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Stranraer | 1 - 0 | Spartans |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Spartans | 1 - 2 | Stranraer |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Stranraer | 2 - 1 | Spartans |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Spartans | 0 - 4 | Stranraer |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Stranraer | 0 - 2 | Spartans |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Spartans | 2 - 1 | Stranraer |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Stranraer | 2 - 0 | Spartans |
| 10 Dec 2024 | Spartans | 1 - 3 | Stranraer |
| 03 Aug 2024 | Stranraer | 2 - 2 | Spartans |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Spartans | 0 - 0 | Stranraer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |