| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.2% | 72% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| logistic | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Francesco Forti | Mika Brunold | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1506 | 1659 |
| Surface Elo | 1506 | 1659 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Mika Brunold | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Francesco Forti | 0 - 2 | Mika Brunold |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 17 Sep 06:15 |